Nifty Bumpy Road Ahead!!

• Bumpy Because of Upcoming Election.
• Because of High Volatility in Global Market.
• Bumpy Because of other Asian Market is in Bear grip.

There are many other reasons, but above are the main factors, time to time we have to analyze all these things to get a view on our market, and Most Important is Movement of Crude oil, that can change all the game of Indian Market.

Whatever I write is for generally short to medium term only. US market just completed one of the heaviest Fall in terms of number in history, and my target already achieved in Dowjones and S&P, now Sharp bounce will be there and then 3-5 months of range bound consolidation phase.

Did I say “Sharp Bounce in US Market” Did I? Then what will happen to crude, it will also rise, and then what happens to Nifty! It’s all confusion. That’s why I said Bumpy Road Ahead.

Crude Oil Now at $43, a bounce of 10-15% will be negative for Nifty because then we start getting the bearish trigger in the market.

A trigger means some events in the market which will act as a game changer for the market, and from 11th of January 2019, result session will start, so the market will get more trigger now. Other Asian Markets is in Bear grip, that means they are down 15-20% from the recent high.

Overall If we go through the Nifty chart for Weekly basis, we can see range bound market only, there are very trigger for upside as compare to trigger for the downside.From Sep 2016 Nifty is in Bullish Channel, and it is still in that range, may people saying about the formation of Head & shoulder pattern in Nifty, but it is not valid.

Formation & Confirmation

My rule of trading is to wait for formation then wait for confirmation, then take the trade, don’t jump for trade. Till now there is no confirmation of H&S, so I will not talk about it, for me, a Weekly breakdown below bullish channel support line will give me confirmation of selling, till then wait and watch only. ( weekly with the good real body or one monthly close below that line).

Crude 

Crude now at crucial support, $40-42 is major support, Major because many times from 1986 it took support. so now again it is near support levels.For Bigger Timeframe, Crude support is $40 and Resistance is $70. Crude will keep moving in between this range, crude can rally 10-15% if it sustains above $42-44 mark for next 2-4 days. A big rally in crude can easily impact Movement of Nifty.

As per my last post Is Nifty really Decoupling? If not, then what’s Holding up? in that I wrote Nifty will take the support of 10520 and Yesterday it reversed from 10534, now again Big resistance is 10960 and then 11100 marks.

Just because of Less volume in the market and high volatility I am not sharing any trade, Wait for January 2, more new things will be there in City Invest Wisely. Keep following and Keep sharing.