May 2014 : NDA Government Won Elections in 2014, This Incident Changed the Scenario of Stock market, A Long 3-4 Dull Market Changed into Bull Market. May 2014 was the Starting Point. That happen many times in Market or Economy, When a single outcome change the structure & that Structure will continue for some years.
Market will not go up in straight line, volatility/correction will be there, that can be 10-20% from high. So If you are long term Investor then Just Buy the Dip.
Huge Liquidity Plus Low Interest Rates will fuel more higher rally in Nifty. Now If someone say what about Corona ? See we Coming out of 2nd Wave, Plus Vaccination process going on, Hope we complete vaccination process by End of 2021.
Now coming Back to Market : May 2021 My Long Term Model Indicated Big Breakouts in Many stock ( Nearly 350-450 Stock). That happen only once in the past “May 2014” But this May 2021 is Very aggressive one. It’s like People are greedy to buy shares at any level. This Greedy word Remind me one of warren Buffet Quote.
Fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful
But My Another Trading Model which caution me Towards “Market Bubble” Indicating there is no fear in the market right now, I track these Extreme Caution in Monthly charts of All shares listed in Market. Last Time Bubble Alert I got in January 2018, Which i updated in My Facebook Page.
When ever Market have to start Multiyear Bull Run, It will start with a Bang, But in Between Process of 2-4 Years Bull Runs, Small Small correction/volatility will be there, that will filter out Good fundamental shares Which sustain the Higher Levels Easily for longer Period of Time.
Last Time Bull Rally Started in May 2014, Ended on January 2018. You can see Below Trading Model Image, This will give you Idea about How a Bull Rally Start & How it will continue for 2-4 Years.
You can See in the Above Model values of May 2014 & Recent Month Values, Indicating A Long term Bullish Setup in Many Stocks. May 2021 is a kind of Aggressive one, That Means aggressive Rallies & Few Months of consolidation, Or 10-15% corrections, This 10-15% Fall is very normal in Market. For Bull Market consolidation/Correction is Necessary to build a base & continue the Rally for Higher Targets.
As We are Investing in Market we should also take care of Bubble Formation in Market, Multiple Times in the Past My trading Model Indicated Bubble Values of above 80. Last Alert Indicated in January 2018. A Spike Above 80 Means Reduce Buying Bets & Avoid Leverage long trades, If Possible Book Profit in Long term Shares.
Right Now We are not in Bubble Category, We are in Stage 1 Bullish Development, So avoid all kinds of Panic, Yeah Market Will do everything to make sure Weak hands get out of market. But My Long Term 1st target of Nifty still pending which I gave in Premium Trades batch.
Long Term Trade Alert was there on 1st Feb 2021 when Nifty was at 14200, For Target of 15850, I have Some More Higher Targets for Nifty, But Can’t Disclose, If i Disclose many people gets stomach pain. People who follow me Regularly knows that target.
Will Continue to Hold all Long Term Breakouts Trades, Aggressive Rallies will be there, Go for Breakouts which can give you 40-80% Return per Share, Trade with Position Sizing & Risk Management You will never get Hurt. This time is not for betting on 4-8% Return. Once you hear more about Re-opening of cities, More Rallies will be there.
Disclaimer : Invest as per your Pocket Size. Don’t Expect All share will rally , Every stock have their own cycle of growth.
2 Comments
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Very informative article…Thank for sharing!!!